Issue 50. November 13th, 2023

Happy Monday💸 I hope everyone enjoyed the 3 day weekend and thanked a Veteran for their service.

I asked the question last week here and on Facebook, but I think it is safe to say we are full-blown in the “We are planning on circling back after the Holidays” mentality, so basically THE HOLIDAY ZONE. Which is a double-edged sword.

Short days, weekend bookings with Holiday parties, and Christmas music are all around the corner. But with that comes shrinking pipelines and longer response times. Stay sharp right now, and your motivated clients will notice!!

We’re in the last 2- 3 weeks of booking any new deals that will count towards your 2023 numbers. Did you hit your goal(s)?

🪖 See you in the trenches.

– Glenn T. Groves

TLDR (Too Long Didn’t Read) Summary:

• ↔️ RATES – Treading water ahead of CPI.

• 📊 TECHNICALS – Waiting for a crash??

  Verify my mortgage eligibility (Dec 5th, 2023)

• 📰 INDUSTRY – Mr. Cooper back up and running.

RATES
➡️ NOVEMBER 13TH, 2023

Product Rate / APR Weekly Change

↔️ Conventional (Zero Point) 7.500% / 7.515% -.000%

Conventional (One Point) 7.125% / 7.223%

↔️ Conv. HB (Zero Point) 7.750% / 7.762% -.000%

Conv. HB (One Point) 7.375% / 7.494%

⬆️ JUMBO (Zero Point) 7.750% / 7.794% +.125%

JUMBO (One Point) 7.375% / 7.512%

↔️ FHA 3.5% Down (Zero Point) 6.750% / 7.484% –.000%

FHA 3.5% Down (One Point) 6.375% / 7.196%

⬆️ VA 0% Down (Zero Point) 7.000% / 7.242% +.250%

VA 0% Down (One Point) 6.500% / 6.874%

Rate data as of morning of publication. Unless noted otherwise, all scenarios are assuming 30 Year Fixed mortgage, Purchase & R/T Refinance. No origination points charged, 780 FICO score, and 20% down payment .Provided for consumer education only and does not serve as a binding offer to extend lending. Payment period, interest rate, APR, and other terms subject to income, asset, and credit profile qualification.

Rates highlighted in this color have the same metrics as above, but would incur one discount point charge.

*NEW* Debt Consolidation Options

⬆️ FIXED 2nd (Zero Point) 10.125% / 10.155% +.125%

FIXED 2nd (One Point) 9.750% / 9.898%

Rate data as of morning of publication. Unless noted otherwise, above scenario are assuming 30 Year Fixed, Closed End 2nd mortgage, Cash Out Refinance. No origination points charged, 780 FICO score, 60% CLTV .Provided for consumer education only and does not serve as a binding offer to extend lending. Payment period, interest rate, APR, and other terms subject to income, asset, and credit profile qualification.

Rates highlighted in this color have the same metrics as above, but would incur one discount point charge.

• 📊 Mortgage Rates: Retreating a little from last Monday. The end of the week saw some volatility that at one point looked very ugly.

  Verify my mortgage eligibility (Dec 5th, 2023)

TECHNICALS

Waiting For A Crash

We don’t know what this market will bring us, especially with tomorrow’s CPI reports. But 1 thing we can agree that waiting for a crash is foolish.

Yes, we still get those prospective buyer calls about how their Uncle told them to wait for a crash, The rates are too high (not wrong) and they should WAIT! We have all had the conversations.

You can lead a horse to water…

📊 Home Prices Hitting Record Highs 📈

• CoreLogic's Home Price Index: Nationwide home prices increased by 0.3% from August to September, marking a new all-time high for the fifth consecutive month.
• Forecast: CoreLogic predicts a 0.1% rise in October and a 2.6% increase over the next year. Historically, their forecasts are conservative; 2023 is on track for an 8% appreciation.
• Black Knight Report: National home values rose 0.4% in September, continuing the trend of record highs for the fifth month.

Bottom Line: These trends from CoreLogic, Black Knight, and
other indices like Case-Shiller and Zillow highlight the continued growth in home values, making homeownership a solid wealth-building opportunity.

📉 Continuing Jobless Claims on the Rise 📊

• Latest Data: Although Initial Jobless Claims slightly declined, Continuing Claims rose for the seventh straight week, reaching 1.834 million.
• Employment Trends: The increase in Continuing Claims suggests challenges in the job market, as noted by ZipRecruiter’s CEO, Ian Siegel. The rapid rate hikes by the Fed have led to more cautious hiring practices.

Bottom Line: While the job market is historically stable, the rising Continuing Claims indicate a tougher environment for job seekers, impacting consumer confidence and potentially affecting the housing market.

📉 Key Recession Indicators 🚨

• Jobs Report Analysis: The unemployment rate increased to 3.9% in October, a notable rise from April’s 3.4%. Historically, such an increase often precedes or coincides with a recession.
• Sahm
  Rule: This indicator will trigger if the unemployment rate reaches 4.2% in November (data due on December 8), suggesting a looming recession.
• Labor Market Indicator: A 19% year-over-year increase in people unemployed for 15 weeks or more also points towards a recession.

Bottom Line: While recessions bring challenges, they also typically lead to lower interest rates, which can be a silver lining for the mortgage market.

🔍 What to Watch This Week 🔎

• Inflation Reports: October’s Consumer Price Index and Producer Price Index.
• Housing Data: Updates from the National Association of Home Builders, along with October's Housing Starts and
  Building Permits.
• Manufacturing and Retail: November data for New York and Philadelphia, plus October's Retail Sales.
• Jobless Claims: Latest figures due on Thursday.

📉 Technical Picture 📊

• Mortgage Bonds: Ended last week below the 50-day Moving Average. Watch for movement towards the 25-day Moving Average.
• 10-Year Bonds: Trading between the 50-day and 25-day Moving Averages, indicating market volatility.

Please note, all data is sourced from respective official reports and news as of the latest available figures.

🔗 Sources & Further Reading:

CoreLogic

Black Knight

Bureau of Labor Statistics

ZipRecruiter

INDUSTRY

What Else Is Happening?

🏠💸 IMB Servicers Excel in Loss Mitigation Independent mortgage bank (IMB) servicers are outperforming banks in working with defaulted borrowers and implementing loss mitigation strategies, showing significant improvement over practices seen in 2008. Read more.

💔 Mr. Cooper Recovers from Cyberattack Mr. Cooper’s (stupid name BTW) automated phone systems and website are back up and running following a recent cyberattack, ensuring continued service for its customers. Read more.

🏡 Mortgage Rate Lock Volume Stagnant Amid Market Headwinds October saw no significant change in mortgage rate lock volumes, reflecting the challenging conditions in the current market. Read more.

Created by Glenn Groves

Loan Scenario Question?

• Email the team: TeamGlenn@gtgfi.com

Options For Your Clients

• Schedule Call: 1 on 1 with Glenn

  Verify my mortgage eligibility (Dec 5th, 2023)

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