💸PCE Turkey Drop

Issue 98 – Good Morning and Happy Tuesday.

The biggest thing to watch is the PCE data (Personal Consumption Expenditure) that will be released on Wednesday. This is the Fed’s favorite measure of inflation and could affect mortgage rates with a knee-jerk reaction.

Short week ahead. Markets are closed on Thursday and then close early on Friday. So here is the fun stuff you want to know about.

🏈 Thanksgiving Day NFL Schedule

This Thursday, November 28, 2024, the NFL presents a trio of exciting matchups:

Personal note: Saturday was my lovely wife Jamie’s birthday. She wanted to go for a hike while there was a break in the rain, so we headed back to Crane Creek Regional Park in Sonoma County.

Beautiful day out for a hike

Candid Camera

These boys are lucky to have such a great mom!

INTEREST RATES
Rates 📢 November 26th, 2024

10 Year T-Note 3 Month Snapshot

Rate data as of morning of publication. Unless noted otherwise, all scenarios are assuming 30 Year-Fixed mortgage, Purchase or R/T Refinance. No origination points charged, 780 FICO score, and 20% down payment. Provided for consumer education only and does not serve as a binding offer to extend lending. Payment period, interest rate, APR, and other terms subject to income, asset, and credit profile qualification. Provided courtesy of GTG Financial, Inc. NMLS 1595076. Equal housing opportunity. www.nmlsconsumeraccess.org

Rates: All baseline rates are now under 7%. We’re back, just in time for a short trading week. Markets will be closed on Thursday for Thanksgiving and close early on Friday the 29th.

Bottom Line: Each cabinet appointment by President-Elect Trump has its own ripple effects on the markets. Couple this with PCE (the Fed’s favorite measure of inflation) on Wednesday.

TECHNICALS
Inventory Up, Homes Still Selling

We’re in a better position than this time last year, but we’re still not out of the woods yet with inventory issues that have plagued us for the past 4-5 years!

📈 Existing Home Sales Show Strength Despite Challenges

• Sales Growth: Existing home sales rose 3.4% in October and are up 2.9% from last year, marking the first annual increase in over three years.

• Inventory Reality: While total inventory increased 19% year-over-year, only 954,000 homes were actively available at the end of October, showing inventory is tighter than it appears.

• Fast-Paced Market: Homes averaged just 29 days on the market, with 19% selling above list price.

💡 What Agents Can Tell Buyers and Sellers

• For Buyers: “Inventory is tighter than it looks—homes are selling quickly, with many going above list price. If you find the right home, be prepared to act fast to stay competitive.”

• For Sellers: “Now is a great time to list your property. With limited inventory and strong buyer demand, you’re in a strong position to receive competitive offers.”

• For Both: “Even with higher rates, the market is active. Waiting could mean facing more competition and potentially higher prices down the road as demand grows.”

💵 PCE Numbers Will Be Released on Wednesday

• For Buyers: “If inflation comes in lower than expected, mortgage rates might ease, creating a window of opportunity to lock in a better rate. It’s worth staying informed.”

• For Sellers: “Lower inflation could bring more buyers into the market as affordability improves, increasing competition for your listing.”

• For Both: “The Fed closely watches inflation data like the PCE to adjust its policies. A shift in rates can quickly change market dynamics—let’s stay ahead of it together.”

Key Takeaway: The PCE report is a key driver of mortgage rates. Encourage your clients to act strategically, knowing changes could be on the horizon.