The Number Your Hesitant Buyers Need to Hear
June 2026 | GTG Financial | Santa Rosa, CA
TL;DR: What’s in This Post
- Why rates are not the number your hesitant buyers should be focused on right now
- What Fannie Mae’s Q2 2026 Home Price Expectations Survey actually says
- What 14% growth means for an $850,000 home in California
- Where to get the full weekly breakdown every Monday
Mortgage rates have been stuck in a tight range for weeks. Friday’s jobs report might finally move them, but nobody knows which way. And while everyone keeps staring at rates, there is a number that is actually worth talking about right now.
The Number That Changes the Conversation
Fannie Mae’s latest Home Price Expectations Survey, based on the views of more than 150 economists and housing experts, just forecasted that home prices will grow approximately 14% over the next five years. That is the panel-wide average for Q4 2025 through Q4 2030.
The most optimistic quartile sees cumulative growth of 21.6%. The most pessimistic sees a decline of 5.3%. The middle of the road is 13.6%, which rounds to the 14% figure that changes the conversation for buyers who are sitting on the sidelines waiting for rates to move.
That is the number your hesitant buyers need to hear. Not the rate.
What It Actually Means in California
On an $850,000 home, 14% growth projects to roughly $119,000 in new equity over five years. That is not a guarantee and it is not advice to buy any specific property. It is context. It is the long game that too many hesitant buyers are not being shown.
One important caveat: 14% is a national average. The number one rule of real estate is still location, location, location. Your local market may run hotter or cooler than the national figure. But the broader point stands. A buyer who waits another year for a rate that may or may not move is also sitting out a year of potential equity.
Your job is not to predict rates. It is to help your client see the long game.
Get the Full Breakdown Every Week
This week’s GTG Weekly newsletter has the full Fannie Mae data, current rate commentary, and what it all means for buyers in the North Bay right now. Published every Monday, free to subscribe.
Glenn Groves
Mortgage Broker | GTG Financial | Santa Rosa, CA
NMLS #1124642 | gtgfi.com
GTG Financial, Inc. NMLS #1595076 | CA DRE #02029711. Equal Housing Opportunity. Not a commitment to lend. Subject to credit approval and underwriting. Home price projections are based on the Fannie Mae Q2 2026 Home Price Expectations Survey and are not a guarantee of future performance. Individual results vary based on market conditions, location, and other factors. nmls consumeraccess.org
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